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People often rely on mental shortcuts that shape how they judge situations, estimate risks, and make choices. These shortcuts include biases like anchoring on the first number heard, fearing losses more than valuing gains, overestimating abilities, and favoring information that confirms existing beliefs. Recognizing these common patterns helps explain why decisions sometimes stray from rational thinking.

The people paid to pick winning stocks mostly lose to a fund that simply buys everything, and it looks worse once dead funds are counted properly. The findings here differ on why: statistical bias, market efficiency, methodological blind spots, possible exceptions in bonds, and whose conflicts of interest color the analysis. Where you come down decides whether active management deserves any of your money.